Friday, April 26, 2013

Currency: Basket vs. USD




Here's Brazil, Japan and China. Some notes:
  1. A 75% devaluation in the real vs. the dollar from 2001 to 2003. Wikipedia tells me a potential presidential candidate with hopes of defaulting on Brazilian debt caused an economic slowdown and a flight from the real. The real-dollar FX rate decreased as the US trade deficit sweeled from '02-'08.
  2. The yen is confusing. It was least valuable in 2002, peaking during the asset price bubble in Japan. A good look at why the yen strengthened from '08-'11 is here. It was written in 2011, so since we're in 2013, it's worth a chuckle to read this excerpt from the article:

    "In summary, the yen is a highly suitable candidate for the risk averse investor, and there is little chance of yen holders being sandbagged by a dramatic policy change along the lines of what the Swiss did.  The safety of yen holdings will only be endangered when Japanese officials at the Finance Ministry and Bank of Japan agree that there is no more urgent priority than a much weaker yen."

    Of course, this is exactly what happened as the BoJ is doubling-down on Fed inflationary policies. The yen seems to do its own thing, so I'm not going to worry too much about it.
  3. The yuan is not a floating currency. It was pegged to the dollar until around 2005, as can be seen by the constant line in yuan-dollar FX chart. After that, China devalued the RMB to help industry (by encouraging exports). The common story is that China wants the RMB as an international reserve currency, which requires the RMB to float. Capital controls (that is, Chinese government controls on where/when/how much on of the RMB can be used internationally?) aim to manage market valuation. Rather than having everyone decide what the yuan is worth, China gets to decide. For now, the yuan is relatively strong against the dollar.

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