Valuing Thompson Creek Molybdenum Production

In the previous post, I presented results from a simple ARCH-based model aimed at creating a distribution of possible outcomes for mol prices using past tendencies. One way to use this information would be to directly value mol production based on corporate estimates for production and cash costs, which are often obtainable from SEC filings.
Taking the numbers from a table on P. 24 of TC's Q1 2013 report, the high-end estimate of 30.5 mlbs of mol in 2013 and 2014 means an average monthly production of ~2.55 mlbs with low end cash costs of $6.50 plb and high end CC's of $7.50 and $7.75 plb in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Without much difficulty, these can be fed into the model to create month-to-month profit from mol production by taking the price forecast net cash costs and multiplying by monthly production.

Here are the distributions of outcomes for the first and second half of 2013 and 2014 along with cumulative profits using the low-side cost of $6.50 plb and the high-side estimate for production.